According to globalsecurity.org, there have been 3,347 U.S. casualties since the beginning of the Iraq war in March 2003. I decided to merge the casual empiricisms from my previous post and Zero's to analyze the relationship between stock performance and U.S. casualties in Iraq. When I regress monthly US and Israeli stock returns on the number of casualties in Iraq, I find no statistically significant relationship. I think its nice to know that military casualties don't make Wall Street fat cats fatter.
However, when I look at the Egyptian market, I find that a 10% increase in fallen GIs correlates with a 0.2 percentage point rise in Egyptian stocks. Casual empiricism leads me to conclude that I've found the Second Law of Petropolitics (for the First Law, see Friedman's article in Foreign Policy).
However, when I look at the Egyptian market, I find that a 10% increase in fallen GIs correlates with a 0.2 percentage point rise in Egyptian stocks. Casual empiricism leads me to conclude that I've found the Second Law of Petropolitics (for the First Law, see Friedman's article in Foreign Policy).
39 comments:
This is without a doubt the most dubious correlation I have ever laid eyes on. I crown this entry Casual Empiricism of the Month!
I agree. The graph and the regression results don't quite match up. I will provide the data to whom ever wants to re-create this masterpiece.
it looks like most of the power is coming from months 36-45 or so...So, this would be, what, mar 06-Dec 06. I bet the trend isn't there if you ignore these.
actually, this bolsters your plausibility. this is when the majority of US politicians first started to signal that they might consider leaving Iraq in response to the casualties.
Well said.
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