Friday, May 18, 2007

Stock Market Decoupling?


Researchers have found that investors under-hold international assets in their portfolio. A couple weeks ago, the front page of the Money and Investing of the WSJ had a small article indicating that the correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 index and the MSCI EAFE indices had dropped from .93 to .63. This "decoupling" further strengthens the argument for investors to hold more international stocks in their portfolio. However, its not clear that holding the MSCI EAFE is the appropriate diversification instrument. The index is a composite of disparate (but developed) countries. I re-checked the correlations between the S&P 500 and indvidual markets. Correlations have fallen for Germany, UK and Hong Kong. Interestingly, the correlations have actually increased for India, China and Japan. Can increased trade with the U.S. explain the rise in correlations for these countries?

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